iBusinessAngel

Warren Buffett on a visit to Kansas University Business School

Have you ever asked yourself what would Warren Buffett do if he were a Business Angel?
 
Well, it might be a bit hard to ask Mr Buffett along to attend our investments seminars, so instead we have attempted to summarise the rules Warren Buffett applies to his investments to see if we can apply that to business angel investing?

Yes, we can. With a few adaptations.

From Buffett’s many rules and ideas our take on his work is that it can be summarised very briefly as follows

• lose no money (nor shareholder value)
• buy franchise business (with pricing power)
• align incentives (between management and shareholders)

 

Lose no Money means
Buy at fair price (neither too much nor too little). Too much and you’ll never make a return, too little and the sellers (who will probably remain in or retain an interest in the business) will resent your presence and are likely to undermine the financial outcome for everyone. What is a fair price? It has to be based on the likely throw-off of cash (net of capital reinvestment required to maintain the business, its assets and its brand) over the next 20 years. It is difficult to assess early stage business values, but that is no reason not to try and Buffett’s method is as good as any and provides a clear starting place.

There are two tricks when assessing future cashflow returns

1. Firstly, most start-up business plans predict steady growth over years one to three and then exponential profit growth. This just means that future costs are unknown, not that the business is likely to experience 80 or 90% profit margins. Nearly all businesses, especially if they wish to maintain growth, will revert to profit margins at or below 30% of revenue. Many mature businesses will have much lower profit margins but are much more stable and reliable. Therefore, use the industry standard profit margin for future returns and never above 30%.
2. Secondly, most businesses forget that they need to re-invest a given amount of cash into the business simply to maintain its value. A good example is brand advertising, which does not have a direct cash generative benefit, but without it the long term ability of the business to grow revenue will be harmed.

Lose no Money also means
Don’t speculate - but place your money on sure bets at good prices. However, this is not the environment of the business angel investor – who is in early investment sector. The truth is that the early stage investment market is not a sector that Buffett works in. However, the principle can still be applied – albeit that you accept that you are in a speculative environment. iBusiness Angel has written before on how to reduce the chances of losing your money- and it is important to keep these ideas at the front of your mind before making any investment. So Business Angels need to consider reducing the risk of a loss whilst Buffett can focus on ‘Lose no Money’.

Lose no Money also means
Invest in businesses that you understand. That means that if your knowledge is based on retail businesses, don’t invest in a tech start up, unless it has specific application to the sector that you know about. Buffett famously didn’t invest in Microsoft nor the tech boom. He made his money by sticking to what he knew well so that he could judge a good opportunity clearly and avoid the bad investment options.

Franchise business means
The business must be able to maintain its price position. Hence, it must be creating and delivering a product or service that is unique and protected by intellectual property rights or geography. Without this protection, whatever the business offers is vulnerable to´’cheap immitators’ or ‘me too’ competitors which might not put the firm out of business but will prevent the business maintaining its margin and therefore damaging shareholder value (see point 1 above).

Aligned incentives means
The incentives of the shareholders must be the same as the investors. This is often the case at the beginning of the start up, but if the management start paying themselves large salaries, then their incentive will no longer be to sell the shares but to hang onto the job. The control of future remuneration by shareholders – independent of the management – is critical for any start-up in its middle years. This control needs to be set up right (ie to ensure that shareholders can keep the incentives balanced or have an option to sellout) and it needs to be set up before the business angel invests.

Early Stage investors who can adapt Buffetts rules and principles and apply them to Business Angel Investing stand a far greater chance of success.

This approach does, of course, require a more systematic approach to investing – some might call it ‘professional’ – but the evidence is that this steady handed and cool headed approach is the most successful. And, for the epitome of a cool headed investor, we need look no further than Warren Buffett.

Ps. We’d strongly recommend you keep a copy of Mr Buffett’s thoughts and essays.

There are many books on Buffett, but there is nothing like going directly to the source yourself. The best of the bunch has to be The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Investors and Managers.

By Dr. Earl R. Smith II
DrSmith@Dr-Smith.com
www.Dr-Smith.com

With many companies – particularly early-stage ones – the Board of Directors is seen as little more than a legal necessity. But it can be so much more including an important force for growth and a gyroscope that keeps things on course and sure-footed.

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I work with a lot of CEOs who are trying to move their companies out of the mid to high single digit run rates. The journey from five to twenty million in annual revenue is one of the most difficult in the evolution of any company. CEOs need to reinvent themselves at least two or three times during the process.

The senior team at five million will be radically overhauled and resourced by the time the company hits twenty million. The cottage culture will have given way to an increasingly professionalizing one. The competition that the company faces in their business development efforts will be better resourced, smarter and more efficiently managed. 

By the time a company reaches the high teens in annual revenue, the whole question of governance becomes a significant issue. Management will be spending a lot more time managing the business. The original team, with their overblown titles, will have been replaced with new faces that actually have the skill sets necessary to carry them.

In the best of all worlds the recruiter who had the title VP of HR is now replaced with an individual who understands, and can effectively deal with, the HR issues that can bring a company down. The controller who had the title VP of Finance or CFO has been replaced with a person who can manage banking relationships, oversee an increasingly complex financial reporting system, keep track of a complicated options and equity ownership situation and effectively manage relationships with investors and potential investors. There may be a more experienced COO and possibly even a Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) on the team.

Read more…

Crazy Risk Taking Business Angels?

Business Angels come in different shapes and sizes. But are they really like? Crazy? Successful? Generous or in it for the money?

That is a question that not only entrepreneurs ask themselves, but also the Business Angels too.

Why?

Most investments that gain Angel investment will have not one single investors but a small team or committee or even a board. And one Business Angel is going to want to know who they are investing alongside. If the Business Angels don’t have mutual respect among them, then the investment is at risk.

This is why Angel investors will often form a small team and, collectively, invest in a number of projects. 

Read more…

Is the Iceberg Melting?

I am not suggesting for a moment that all Green businesses are bad investments, but I am suggesting that whenever a bubble appears or to there is much enthusiasm for an idea, that a number of the businesses ideas sold to unquestioning investors will turn out to serve the middle men far more than the money men.

As the investors, the business angels, we need to be on our guard.

There appear to be two dangers with the current alternative or green energy fad.

Read more…

Pounds and Pence

In the first recession investors wanted business plans that offered new simplified services or goods that make things work better (ie. increase efficiency – such as self-service on the web for better prices) or that reduce costs (such as better conferencing or collaboration on the web allowing businesses to cut corporate travel).

However, as opinions strengthen that stocks have rebounded too fast and property assets have not fallen far enough, entrepreneurs and investors need to start thinking about how to handle the second recession.

Now, this is not to say that a second recession is guaranteed, simply to say that the risk of a second recession is sufficient for it to be a part of your plan.

And this is where it gets difficult…

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Where are your Dollars Going?

The biggest question for angel investors – and hardest to answer question – is ‘what am I actually investing in’?

However, if we ask the question another way, it does become easier.

If we take the approach that the task of the investor is first and foremost not to lose his money, then the first question that comes to mind will be this:

‘if the business plan as presented fails and the business assets are liquidated, will I get any or all of my money back’?

The answer to this question will tell you whether or not you are investing in anything tangible or whether you are well and truely taking a punt.

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56% of ventures invested in by angel investors will fail, according to recent research by Nesta..

However, as Nesta warns, the figure could be even higher as their statistical sample was taken from angel investors who have remained active over a number of years.

Therefore, the rate of failure could be as high as 80% , or to put it another way, 80p is lost of every £1 invested.

This rate of failure is too high and the networks and businesses that depend on angel investing are beginning to recognise that it needs to be addressed.

So, how do you, an angel investor, increase your chance of success?

Read more…

“Venture Capital funds available for start-up and growth businesses has dropped 70% since 2000″, said Anne Glover chief executive of Amadeus Capital Partners at the BBAA Annual Awards Dinner.

This means that businesses seeking new capital that are unable to raise bank finance (and who is able at present?) will need to increasingly turn to Business Angels.

In the view of Anne Glover, this represents a huge opportunity for Business Angels as the Venture Capital businesses will not be able to take all the best deals and leave the angel investors with the left-overs.

In fact, a theme that developed during the recent BBAA event was that Venture Capital firms want to work with Business Angels.

A number of VC firms, such as Catapult, look to invest alongside Business Angels.  Rob Carroll, managing director of Catapult said “investing alongside experienced entrepreneurs and angel investors increases our chance of success.”

Read more…

Business Angels need training - that was the overwhelming message coming from the British Business Angels Association annual conference held at the Belfry in early July.

Quoting new research from Nesta, Mogwenna Rees-Mogg stated that a ‘56% failure rate for Business Angel investing is not good enough’.

This means that for every £1 invested by UK Business Angels, 56p will be lost out right and the remaining 44p will have to grow considerably to make up for the loss and return the business angel with a sufficient return to justify both the money and the time invested.

Discussing the Nesta research in more detail, the panel members expressed the view that it is likely that perhaps 10 or 20% of Business Angels do considerably better than the remaining 80 to 90% and therefore, in order for angel investing sector to grow, more investors need more support, training and help to make better investments.

John Huston, Chairman of the US equivalent to BBAA, Angel Capital Association, confirmed that the results of the Nesta survey into UK business angel success rates mirrors the experience in the USA.

The BBAA (British Business Angels Association) trade body is today organising its annual awards ceremony and conference at the Belfry.

The event is sponsored by Advantage West Midlands, the redevelopment agency for the West Midlands.

It will include both an opportunity to recognise key contributions made to this growth sector during the year at the annual awards dinner as well as create a platform for discussion about how this new sector should grow during the conference session on Thursday.

Many business angel networks and agencies have seen an increase in activity in 2009 as a result of high net worths looking for greater influence over how their money is invested as well as more business start-ups turning to business angels to provide initial funding.

However, converting interest into actual funds invested; and, funds invested into business success is where the industry still needs to prove its mettle.

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